Skip to main content


Links to journal articles and other publications are provided as a courtesy. Your access will depend on your academic institution's subscription policy. Links to books are to the publisher's website if the book is not available electronically.

Empirical Studies of Conflict on Google Scholar
Proxy Wars cover


“ […] represents a cohesive and ambitious attempt to demonstrate the value of a principal-agent framework for understanding the dynamics of foreign intervention, including why these efforts often fail to achieve desired outcomes." Jason Lyall, Yale University

More on the book

Small Wars, Big Data cover


“... required reading for military leaders, policymakers, development professionals, and diplomats.” Gen. (ret.) David H. Petraeus; “… melds rigorous empirical research with collaborative scholarship and great storytelling: a breakthrough for political science.” Anne-Marie Slaughter, President, New America

Find in Library

Radical, Religious and Violent cover


“An engaging book that brings new insight to an extremely polarizing topic.” David Leonard, New York Times; “An important and compelling book by an outstanding scholar.” Professor Richard English

Find in Library

Books and Book Chapters

Berman, Eli, and David A. Lake, eds. Proxy Wars: Suppressing Violence through Local Agents. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2019.

Berman, Eli, Joseph H. Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro. Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict. Princeton University Press, 2018. 

Berman, Eli. Radical, Religious and Violent: The New Economics of Terrorism. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2009.

Lake, David A. The Statebuilder’s Dilemma: On the Limits of Foreign Intervention. Cornell University Press, 2016.

Lessing, Benjamin. "The Danger of Dungeons: Gangs and Armed Groups in Prison." In Small Arms Survey 2010. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010.

Lidow, Nicolai Hart. Violent Order: Understanding Rebel Governance through Liberia's Civil War. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2016.

Journal Articles

Berman, Eli. “From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline among European Catholics,” Journal of Demographic Economics 84, no. 2 (2018):149–87.

Berman, Eli, and Laurence R. Iannaccone. Religious Extremism: The Good, the Bad and the DeadlyPublic Choice (2006).

Berman, Eli, and David D. Laitin. Religion, Terrorism and Public Goods: Testing the Club Model. Journal of Public Economics (2008).

Berman, Eli, and Aila Matanock. "The Empiricist's Insurgency." Annual Review of Political Science (2015).

Berman, Eli, Joseph H. Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro. "Constructive COIN: How Development Can Fight Radicals." Foreign Affairs online, June 1, 2010.

Berman, Eli, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Joseph H. Felter. "Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq." Journal of Political Economy 119, no. 4 (August 2011): 766–819. 

Berman, Eli, Joseph H. Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Erin Troland. "Modest, Secure, and Employed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103 (2013): 512–17. Longer version as NBER Working Paper 18674

Berman, Eli, Joseph H. Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Michael Callen. "Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines." Journal of Conflict Resolution (August 2011).

Biddle, Stephen. "Building Security Forces and Stabilizing Nations: The Problem of Agency." Daedalus 146, no. 4 (2017): 126–38.

Biddle, Stephen, and Jacob Shapiro. "America Can’t Do Much About ISIS: That leaves patience, containment, and humanitarian aid as the least-bad policies while waiting for this awful war to play itself out." The Atlantic (April 2019).

Biddle, Stephen, Julia Macdonald, and Ryan Baker. "Small Footprint, Small Payoff: The Military Effectiveness of Security Force Assistance." Journal of Strategic Studies (2017), doi: 10.1080/01402390.2017.1307745.

Callen, Michael, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, James D. Long, and Charles Sprenger. "Violent Trauma and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan." American Economic Review 104, no. 1 (2014): 123–48. 

Chou, Tiffany. "Does Development Assistance Reduce Violence? Evidence from Afghanistan.Economics of Peace and Security Journal 7, no. 2 (July 2012).

Condra, Luke, and Jacob N. Shapiro. "Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage." American Journal of Political Science (2011).

Driscoll, Jesse, and Nicholai Lidow. "Representative Surveys in Insecure Environments: A Case Study of Mogadhishu, Somalia."” Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology 2, no. 1 (2014): 78–95.

Egel, Daniel. "Tribal Heterogeneity and the Allocation of Publicly Provided Goods: Evidence from Yemen." Journal of Development Economics 101 (March 2013): 228–32.

Felter, Joseph, and Jacob Shapiro. "Limiting Civilian Casualties as Part of a Winning Strategy: The Case of Courageous Restraint." Daedalus 146, no. 1 (2017): 44–58. doi: 10.1162/DAED_a_00421.

Heger, Lindsay, Danielle Jung, and Wendy Wong. "Organizing for Resistance: How Group Structure Impacts the Character of Violence."Terrorism and Political Violence 24, no. 5 (2012): 743–68.

Lehne, Jonathan, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Oliver Vanden Eynde. "Building Connections: Political Corruption and Road Construction in India.” Journal of Development Economics 131 (March 2018): 62–78. 

Vanden Eynde, Oliver. "Targets of Violence: Evidence from India’s Naxalite Conflict." Economic Journal 128 (March 2018): 887–916. doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12438.

Weidmann, Nils B., and Michael Callen. "Violence and Election Fraud: Evidence from Afghanistan." British Journal of Political Science 43, no. 1 (2013): 5375.

Working Papers

Berman, Eli.  ”Research Note: Why Ungoverned Space?” September 2012.

Berman, Eli, Michael Callen, Clark Gibson, and James Long. "Election Fariness and Government Legitimacy in Afghanistan." NBER Working Paper 19949, March 2014.

Berman, Eli, Joseph H. Felter, Ethan Kapstein, and Erin Troland. ”Predation, Taxation, Investment, and Violence: Evidence from the Philippines.” NBER Working Paper 19266, August 2013.

Callen, Michael, Saad Gulzar, Syed Ali Hasanain, and Yasir Khan. "The Political Economy of Public Sector Absence: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan." NBER Working Paper 22340, June 2016.

Callen, Michael, Saad Gulzar, Arman Rezaee, and Jacob N. Shapiro. "Choosing Ungoverned Space: Pakistan's Frontier Crimes Regulation." Working paper, July 2018.

Condra, Luke N., Joseph H. Felter, Radha K. Iyengar, and Jacob N. Shapiro. ”The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq.” NBER Working Paper 16152, July 2010.


Biddle, Stephen. “Trump’s Appetite for Risk Spells Trouble for US National Security,” Fortune Magazine, April 7, 2017.

Biddle, Stephen and Jacob Shapiro. “The Problem with Vows to 'Defeat' the Islamic State.”The Atlantic, August 21, 2016.

Shapiro, Jacob. "The Flawed Logic of Trump's Executive Order: How Not to Fight Terrorism." Foreign Affairs. January 30, 2017.

Shapiro, Jacob. “How We Can Kill Terrorism with Kindness.” Time, January 5, 2017.

Shapiro, Jacob. “A Predictable Failure: The Political Economy of the Decline of the Islamic State.”CTC Sentinel (September 2016): 2832.