Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Bibliography

with links to selected materials

"Public Policy and Nuclear Threats: Training the Next Generation" started as a PhD training program for students throughout the UC system, funded through NSF's Integrative Graduate Education and Research Training program. The first summer workshop-in-residence at UC San Diego, known familiarly as the PPNT boot camp, was held in 2003.

A list of foundational readings used in the boot camp is provided here, organized by topic. As there is overlap between topic areas, some of the readings are referenced more than once. 

Links are provided as a courtesy. Your access to resources will vary, depending on your academic institution's library policies and subscriptions. Items without links are not available online. Links to books and book chapters are to publishers if the book is not available for free.

Introduction

Introduction to Public Policy Versus Political Science

Byman, Daniel, and Matthew Kroenig. Reaching Beyond the Ivory Tower: A How To Manual, Security Studies 25, no. 2  (2016): 289319, DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2016.1171969.

Lupia, Arthur. Evaluating Political Science Research: Information for Buyers and SellersPS: Political Science and Politics 33, no. 1 (2000): 7–13. DOI: 10.2307/420770.

Shepsle, Kenneth A., and Mark S. Bonchek. Analyzing Politics: Rationality, Behavior, and Institutions (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997). 

International Security

Bunn, Matthew, Martin B. Malin, Nickolas Roth, and William H. Tobey. Advancing Nuclear Security: Evaluating Progress and Setting New Goals. Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, 2014. PDF, 96 pages.

Cann, Michelle, Kelsey Davenport, and Jenna Parker. The Nuclear Security Summit: Accomplishments of the Process. Arms Control and Association and Partnership for Global Security Report, March 2016. PDF, 76 pages.

Nuclear Threat Initiative. NTI Nuclear Materials Security Index: Building a Framework for Assurance, Accountability, and Action, 2nd ed. January 2014. PDF, 148 pages.

Nuclear Threat Initiative. NTI Nuclear Security Index: Theft/Sabotage: Building a Framework for Assurance, Accountability, and Action, 3rd ed. January 2016. PDF, 140 pages.

The White House. Fact Sheet: The Nuclear Security Summits: Securing the World from Nuclear Terrorism. March 29, 2016.

Overview of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Baldwin, George. International Nuclear Safeguards: INMM Tutorial. SAND 2006-4071P. June 2006. PowerPoint presentation. 51 slides.

International Atomic Energy Agency. Safeguards Techniques and Equipment: 2011 Edition. International Nuclear Verification Series No. 1 (Rev. 2) (Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency, 2011). 162 pages.

Kazimi, Mujid, Ernest J. Moniz, and Charles W. Forsberg. The Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011). PDF, 258 pages.

The Cold War Legacy

Nuclear Devices and Effects

Glasstone, Samuel, and Philip J. Dolan. eds. The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 3rd ed. (Washington, DC: US GPO, 1977). PDF, 677 pages.

Rhodes, Richard. The Making of the Atomic Bomb (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1987).

Serber, Robert. The Los Alamos Primer: The First Lectures on How to Build an Atomic Bomb, edited with an introduction by Richard Rhodes. (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992). PDF, 26 pages. The link is to an archival copy of Serber's original lecture notes.

Smyth, Henry DeWolf. Publication of the "Smyth Report." IAEA Bulletin ():28–30. PDF, 3 pages.

Wellerstein, Alex. The Beginning of the Bomb. Slideshow, July 15, 2013, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists website. 10 slides and text.

The Legacy of the Cold War: Deterrence and Strategy

Larsen, Jeffrey A. Deterrence and Extended Deterrence: Key Terms and Definitions. Handout, July 23, 2010. PDF, 2 pages.

Morgan, Patrick M. The State of Deterrence in International Politics Today. Contemporary Security Policy 33, no. 1 (2012): 85–107.

The Legacy of the Cold War in the Second Nuclear Age: Deterrence, Policy, and Strategy

Kristensen, Hans M. Falling Short of Prague: Obama's Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy. Arms Control Today (Sept. 2013).

US Department of Defense. Report on Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States Specified in Section 491 of 10 U.S.C., June 2013.

The White House. Fact Sheet: Nuclear Weapons Employment Strategy of the United States. June 19, 2013.

Nonproliferation

Proliferation: Causes and Consequences

Einstein, Albert. Albert Einstein Letter to President Franklin D. Roosevelt Regarding Uranium. August 2, 1939. 2 pages.

Sagan, Scott D. The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation. Annual Review of Political Science 14 (2011): 225–44. PDF, 26 pages.

Sagan, Scott D. Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb. International Security 21 (1996-97): 54–86. PDF, 33 pages.

Sagan, Scott. The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993).

Singh, Sonali, and Christopher R. Way. The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation: A Quantitative Test. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 6 (2004): 859–85.

International Nonproliferation Regime

Brown, Robert. International Nonproliferation: Why Delegate to the International Atomic Energy Agency? In Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation, eds. Robert Rauchhaus, Matthew Kroenig, and Erik Gartzke (New York: Routledge, 2011), 1–22.

Proliferation Prevention

International Nonproliferation Regime

Eisenhower, Dwight D. Atoms for Peace. Speech before the United Nations General Assembly, December 8, 1953.

International Atomic Energy Agency. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. IAEA Information Circular 140, April 22, 1970. PDF, 5 pages. 

Miller, Steven. Nuclear Collisions: Discord, Reform, and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime, with responses from Wael Al-Assad, Jayantha Dhanapala, C. Raja Mohan, and Ta Minh Tuan (Cambridge, MA: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2012). PDF, 71 pages.

International Safeguards

Heinonen, Olli. Remarks on the Report of the Defense Science Board "Assessment of Nuclear Monitoring and Verification Technology." Presentation, Nonproliferation Education Center, Washington, D.C., March 11, 2014.

Hibbs, Mark. The Plan for IAEA Safeguards. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website, November 20, 2012. 

International Atomic Energy Agency. Model Protocol Additional to the Agreement(s) Between State(s) and the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Application of Safeguards. IAEA Information Circular 540c, September 1997. PDF, 64 pages.

International Atomic Energy Agency. Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material. IAEA Information Circular 274, November 1979. PDF, 27 pages.

International Atomic Energy Agency. The Structure and Content of Agreements Between the Agency and States Required in Connection with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. IAEA Information Circular 153c, June 1972. PDF, 34 pages.

International Atomic Energy Agency. The Agency's Safeguards System. IAEA Information Circular 66, rev. 2, September 1968. PDF, 20 pages.

Rockwood, Laura. Legal Framework for IAEA Safeguards (Vienna: IAEA, 2015). PDF, 42 pages.

Smyth, Henry DeWolf. Publication of the "Smyth Report." IAEA Bulletin ():28–30. PDF, 3 pages.

Tape, James W. The State-Level Approach: Moving Beyond Integrated Safeguards. Paper prepared for Tokyo INMM ESARDA, October 2008. PDF, 9 pages.

US Government Accountability Office. IAEA Has Strengthened Its Safeguards and Nuclear Security Programs, but Weaknesses Need to Be Addressed. GAO-06-93, October 2005. PDF, 84 pages.

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Eisenhower, Dwight D. Atoms for Peace. Speech before the United Nations General Assembly, December 8, 1953.

International Atomic Energy Agency. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. IAEA Information Circular 140, April 22, 1970. PDF, 5 pages. 

Mukhatzhanova, Gaukhar. Rough Seas Ahead: Issues for the 2015 NPT Review Conference. Arms Control Today (April 2014).

Miller, Steven. Nuclear Collisions: Discord, Reform, and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime, with responses from Wael Al-Assad, Jayantha Dhanapala, C. Raja Mohan, and Ta Minh Tuan (Cambridge, MA: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2012). PDF, 71 pages.

Legal Foundations of IAEA Safeguards: Discussions with Laura Rockwood on INFCIRCs/153 and 540, Richland, WA, June 2006. Video. Available on the Foundations of International Safeguards: Safeguards in the Nuclear Age website.

Rockwood, Laura. The IAEA's State-Level Concept and the Law of Unintended Consequences. Arms Control Today 44. Posted online September 29, 2014.

Shea, Thomas, and Laura Rockwood. IAEA Verification of Fissile Material in Support of Nuclear Disarmament. Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, May 2015.

Overview of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Inspections and Monitoring

Baldwin, George. International Nuclear Safeguards: INMM Tutorial. SAND 2006-4071P. June 2006. PowerPoint presentation. 51 slides.

International Atomic Energy Agency. Safeguards Techniques and Equipment: 2011 Edition. International Nuclear Verification Series No. 1 (Rev. 2) (Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency, 2011). 162 pages.

Arms Control

Strategic Arms Control

American Physical Society Panel on Public Affairs and Center for Strategic and International Studies. US-Russian Nuclear Reductions After New START: Summary of a Workshop Exploring Next Steps. PDF, 28 pages.

US Department of State. Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance. New START. US Department of State website. 

Pifer, Steven. Nuclear Arms Control: Another New START. January 17, 2013. Brookings Institution website.

Pifer, Steven. Beyond New START. January 23, 2014. Brookings Institution website.

Woolf, Amy. Strategic Arms Control After START: Issues and Options. Congressional Research Service Report for Congress R40084, March 4, 2010. PDF, 34 pages.

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Committee on International Security and Arms Control. National Academy of Sciences. Technical Issues Related to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2002). https://doi.org/10.17226/10471.

Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty

Fetter, Steve, and Frank von Hippel. A Step-by-step Approach to a Global Fissile Materials Cut-off. Arms Control Today 25, No. 8 (1995). Link is to a draft of the paper.

International Panel on Fissile Materials. A Fissile Material (Cut-Off) Treaty: A Treaty Banning the Production of Fissile Materials for Nuclear Weapons or Other Nuclear Explosive Devices with Article-by-Article Explanations. Discussion draft, September 2, 2009.

Verification and Transparency

American Physical Society Panel on Public Affairs and Center for Strategic and International Studies. US-Russian Nuclear Reductions After New START: Summary of a Workshop Exploring Next Steps. PDF, 28 pages.

Heinonen, Olli. Remarks on the Report of the Defense Science Board "Assessment of Nuclear Monitoring and Verification Technology." Presentation, Nonproliferation Education Center, Washington, D.C., March 11, 2014.

Nuclear Threat Initiative. Innovating Verification: New Tools and New Actors to Reduce Nuclear Risks. 2014. A series of four reports. Links to individual reports are given below.

Innovating Verification Overview

Verifying Baseline Declarations of Nuclear Warheads and Materials

Redefining Societal Variation

Building Global Capacity

Stubbs, C., and S. Drell. Public Domain Treaty Compliance Verification in the Digital Age. Technology and Society 32 No. 4 (2013): 57–64.

US Nuclear Command and Control

Carter, Ashton. The Command and Control of Nuclear War. Scientific American 252, no. 1 (Jan. 1985): 32–39. Access requires subscription.

Harvey, John R. Nuclear Command and Control for the 21st Century. Paper presented to the Department of Defense Nuclear Weapons Effects Users Group (DNUG) conference, September 23, 2014. 

Thompson, Loren. SBIRS: The Pentagon's Most Important Space Program for Preventing Nuclear War. Forbes, June 8, 2015. 

US Government Accountability Office. Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications: Update on DoD's Modernization. GAO-15-584R NC3 Modernization Review, June 15, 2015. 

The Impact of Cyber Technology on Nuclear Deterrence

Dunnmon, Jared. Nuclear Command and Control in the Twenty-First Century: Maintaining Surety in Outer Space and Cyberspace. In Project on Nuclear Issues: A Collection of Papers from the 2016 Nuclear Scholars Initiative and PONI Conference Series, edited by Mark Cancian (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2017) 15–31. Link is to entire book.

Harvey, John R. Nuclear Command and Control for the 21st Century. Paper presented to the Department of Defense Nuclear Weapons Effects Users Group (DNUG) conference, September 23, 2014.

Institute for Science and International Security. ISIS Report: Basic Attack Strategy of Stuxnet 0.5, rev. 1. February 26, 2013. PDF. 6 pages.

Nuclear Strategy

US Nuclear Posture

US Department of Defense. Nuclear Posture Review Report. April 2010.

US Department of Defense. Report on Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States Specified in Section 491 of 10 U.S.C. June 12, 2013.

The White House. Remarks in Prague by President Barack Obama as Delivered. April 5, 2009.

Nuclear Promise, Nuclear Peril

Hecker, Siegfried, Matthias Englert, and Michael Miller. Nuclear Nonproliferation. In Fundamentals of Materials for Energy and Environmental Sustainability, edited by David Ginley and David Cahen (Cambridge University Press, 2011), 162–76.

US Nuclear Security Policy and Extended Deterrence

Kristensen, Hans M. Falling Short of Prague: Obama's Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy. Arms Control Today (Sept. 2013).

Larsen, Jeffrey A. Deterrence and Extended Deterrence: Key Terms and Definitions. Handout, July 23, 2010. PDF, 2 pages.

Morgan, Patrick M. The State of Deterrence in International Politics TodayContemporary Security Policy 33, no. 1 (2012): 85–107.

US Department of Defense. Report on Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States Specified in Section 491 of 10 U.S.C. June 12, 2013.

The White House. Fact Sheet: Nuclear Weapons Employment Strategy of the United States. June 19, 2013.

The Nuclear Taboo

Sagan, Scott D., and Benjamin A. Valentino. Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran: What Americans Really Think About Using Nuclear Weapons and Killing Non-Combatants. International Security 42 (1): 4179. doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00284.

Tannenwald, Nina. The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basis of Nuclear Non-use. International Organization 53, no. 3 (1999): 433–68.

Nuclear Abolition and Humanitarian Consequences

Fihn, Beatrice. The Logic of Banning Nuclear Weapons. Survival 59, no. 1 (2017): 43–50.

Williams, Heather. Why a Nuclear Weapons Ban Is Unethical (For Now). RUSI Journal 161, no. 2, (2016): 38–47.

Nuclear Forces Modernization

Collina, Tom. Welcome to America's "Nuclear Sponge." Defense One. February 3, 2017.

Collina, Tom. How to Slow President Trump from Pushing the ButtonDefense One. June 30, 2016.

Collina, Tom, and Geoff Wilson, editors. 10 Big Nuclear Ideas for the Next President. Ploughshares Fund Study Report No. 2, November 2016. PDF. 52 pages.

The New US Administration Reviews Nuclear Policy. Remarks by Special Assistant to the President Christopher A. Ford, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nonproliferation Conference 2017, March 21, 2017. Video.

World Nuclear Forces

China

Bin, Li. China's Potential to Contribute to Multilateral Nuclear DisarmamentArms Control Today. March 2011.

Chase, Michael. China's Transition to a More Credible Nuclear Deterrent: Implications and Challenges for the United States. Asia Policy 16 (July 2013).

Chase, Michael S., and Arthur Chan. China's Evolving Strategic Deterrence Concepts and Capabilities. Washington Quarterly 39, No. 1 (2016): 117–36. DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2016.1170484.

Klotz, G. Frank, and Oliver Bloom. China's Nuclear Weapons and the Prospects for Multilateral Arms Control. Strategic Studies Quarterly (winter 2013): 3–10.

India and Pakistan

Krepon, Michael, and Julia Thompson, eds. Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control in South Asia (Washington, DC: Stimson Center, 2013). PDF, 207 pages.

Mowatt-Larsen, Rolf. The Lasting Implications of the AQ Khan Network. Presentation at the Carnegie conference, April 6-7, 2009. PDF, 7 pages.

Perkovich, George, and Toby Dalton. How India Can Motivate Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website. July 28, 2016.

North Korea

Eaves, Elisabeth. North Korean Nuclear Program Can't Be Stopped with Weapons, Says Siegfried Hecker. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. May 15, 2017.

Hecker, Siegfried. Can the North Korean Nuclear Crisis Be Resolved? Paper presented at the Conference on Rethinking Nuclear Issues in Northeast Asia.  March 21, 2012. PDF, 18 pages.

Iran

Einhorn, Robert, and Richard Nephew. The Iran Nuclear Deal: Prelude to Proliferation in the Middle East? Brookings Institution Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Series Paper 11, May 2016. PDF, 74 pages.

Kroenig, Matthew. Time to Attack Iran: Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option. Foreign Affairs 91, no. 1 (2012): 76–86.

National Intelligence Council. Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. National Intelligence Estimate report, November 2007. PDF, 9 pages.

Nephew, Richard. Want to Renegotiate the Iran Deal? Much Harder Than It Looks. Markaz blog, Brookings Institution. December 9, 2016.

Nephew, Richard. How the Iran Deal Prevents a Covert Nuclear Weapons Program. Arms Control Today 45, posted September 2, 2015.

US Department of State. Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. July 14, 2015. Page has links to full text and annexes 1-5. 

Nuclear Terrorism: Risks and Responses

Interdiction and Detection

International Atomic Energy Agency. Implementing Guide: Nuclear Security Systems and Measures for the Detection of Nuclear and Other Radioactive Material out of Regulatory Control. IAEA Nuclear Security Series 21 (Vienna: IAEA, 2013). PDF, 60 pages.

Nuclear Terrorism

Bunn, Matthew, Martin B. Malin, Nickolas Roth, and William H. Tobey. Advancing Nuclear Security: Evaluating Progress and Setting New Goals. Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, 2014. PDF, 96 pages.

Bunn, Matthew, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Simon Saradzhyan, William H. Tobey, Yuri Morozov, Viktor I. Yesin, and Pavel S. Zolotarev. The US-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, May 2011. PDF. 52 pages. See pp. 10–41 especially.

Nuclear Forensics

Federal Bureau of Investigation. National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center Ground Collections Task Force. Brochure. n.d.

Hutcheon, I.D., M. J. Kristo, and K. B. Knight. Nonproliferation Nuclear Forensics. In Uranium: Cradle to Grave, ed. P. C. Burns and G.E. Sigman. Short Course Series Vol. 43 (Quebec: Mineralogical Association of Canada, 2013), 377–94.

International Atomic Energy Agency. Technical Guidance Reference Manual: Nuclear Forensics Support. IAEA Nuclear Security Series No. 2 (Vienna: IAEA, 2006). PDF, 81 pages.

Kristo, Michael, Amy Gaffney, Naomi Marks, Kim Knight, William Cassata, and Ian Hutcheon. Nuclear Forensic Science: Analysis of Nuclear Material Out of Regulatory Control. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science 44 (2016): 555–79. doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012309.

Mayer, Klaus. Security: Expand Nuclear Forensics. Nature 503 (November 27, 2013): 461–62. doi:10.1038/503461a.

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