Verification and Monitoring
Verification
Verification means determining how well the parties to a treaty are
keeping their promises. A verification regime for a peace agreement is
not intended to enforce peace in the same way the police and courts
enforce criminal law. Rather, it is designed to "keep honest people
honest" by allowing the involved parties to verify each others'
compliance with the letter and spirit of the agreement, and to
demonstrate their own good faith.
- Without effective means of verification, no peace treaty is worth the
paper it's printed on. In fact, such an agreement can be worse than
useless, as poor verification measures could encourage cheating
which, if discovered, might erase years of progress toward improved
relations.
- No verification scheme, no matter how foolproof, can substitute for
the commitment by all sides to uphold the agreement. Without this
commitment, there can be no peace.
Monitoring
Verification is essentially a legal process, much like a ruling in civil
or contract law, and like any legal process requires evidence. The
gathering of evidence that the parties to a treaty are doing what they
agreed to do, and not doing what they agreed not to do, is known as
monitoring. Monitoring almost always involves some form of observation,
direct or indirect, of prohibited and permitted activities.
- Monitoring can be conducted by on-site inspection (sending someone to
make firsthand observations or measurements) and by remote sensors
(see below).
- The signatories to a treaty may agree to monitor compliance by
national means, where the parties use their own capabilities
(including espionage) to gather information, or by cooperative means,
where the parties collect and interpret data jointly. This model
peace plan includes provisions on cooperative monitoring.
Cooperative Monitoring
Center
A cooperative monitoring center (CMC) is a facility for joint
collection, interpretation, and reporting of data relating to an
international agreement. At the CMC, representatives and technical
experts from all parties work together to receive and record information
which can be used to determine how well each party is complying with the
terms of the treaty. CMCs can be set up to monitor economic and
environmental treaties as well as arms control and security agreements.
Sensors: "Eyes and ears of peace"
Sensors are instruments designed to record and transmit data.
Specialized sensors can pick up visual images, heat signatures, radio
signals, radioactivity, sounds, ground vibrations, or chemicals,
allowing inspectors to "see," "hear," "feel," and even "smell" events at
distant locations.
A wide variety of sensor platforms could be used for cooperative
monitoring in this peace plan:
- Ground-based sensors can detect sounds or vibrations, including those
produced by vehicles, explosions, or people moving on the terrain.
The model peace plan includes many sites for remotely-monitored
traffic checkpoints, which would use ground sensors to detect
movement at road junctions and other key points. Ground stations can also monitor
radio signals and chemicals in the air or water.
- Aircraft can carry cameras, radar, or equipment to monitor radio
signals as part of an "open skies" verification plan.
- Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), basically small, inexpensive,
pilotless aircraft, can also carry airborne sensors, usually at less
cost and with less risk than piloted aircraft.
- Satellites can mount cameras and infrared, electromagnetic, or
radiation sensors. Satellites are expensive to build, launch, and
operate, but the cooperative monitoring center could use data from
commercial satellites already in operation, such as Landsat and SPOT.
For more information on how satellites can be used for cooperative
monitoring, see analysis by Gerald Steinberg.
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