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Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories

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The Middle East


The Middle East peace process continues to frustrate even the most optimistic of observers. What once seemed the nearly inevitable "working out" of a decades-long conflict is now seen more clearly as a contingent unfolding set of events that could drive the region in more than one direction, including toward explicit conflict and war, as it has between Israel and Lebanon and Hamas and Fatah in the past eighteen months. This presents unique theoretical, analytic, and policy opportunities.

Two ongoing IGCC projects continue to keep the lines of unofficial communication open, and a new project seeks to provide answers on which types of reconstruction and political development are crucial to the Middle East in the fight against terrorism. Past IGCC projects have addressed both the environmental and economic concerns of the region.

Terrorist Organizations: Social Science Research on Terrorism

The 2007 IGCC conference drew together academics and practitioners to discuss current research relevant to counterterrorism and counterinsurgency. Leading social scientists from political science, economics, sociology, and anthropology and practitioners from the U.S. military, the U.S. State Department, and the British Foreign Service presented their latest findings and on-the-ground experiences during two days of meetings. The conference was held with the support of the University of California Office of the President , the Earhart Foundation, and the British Consulate-General, Los Angeles. Organizers are pursuing funding for a series of follow-on activities, including a project on Terrorists and Rebels, a follow-up conference focused on policy, and a training program in evaluating benign interventions for Special Operations forces.

Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East

After the Middle East Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) negotiations stalled in 1995–96, IGCC began a program to engage Arab and Israeli military personnel in informal security discussions. Initiated in 1997, Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East series of dialogues assembles active and retired military officers to study emerging global military trends, and examine their possible role in arms control regimes and regional security cooperation. This unique track two project creates a mechanism for ongoing communication between key regional military players, especially important in the absence of formal negotiations such as ACRS. The scope of the project has expanded to include military, retired military, and government officials from the entire region.

The Mideast Regional Security and Cooperation Dialogues

After the Madrid Framework peace talks lost momentum in the 1990s, Professor Steven Spiegel (UCLA Center for Middle East Development) and IGCC filled the void by sponsoring a special series of "track two" meetings on vital Middle East topics. Over the years these meetings have expanded to include representatives from all countries in the region, bringing together business leaders, security experts, academics, journalists, and officials participating in their private capacities, creating dialogues that would otherwise be impossible because of frequent communication gaps among countries in the region.

Past Projects on the Middle East


The Great Silk Road Survey

An accord among the United States, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, pledging to construct a main export pipeline to deliver Caspian oil to western markets, has been lauded a success in "pipeline diplomacy." Opting for a route driven not only by economic efficiencies, but by strategic needs, political ambitions, environmental concerns, and security considerations, the signatories have agreed to pump oil over a 1,100-mile route from Baku, Azerbaijan, through the Republic of Georgia, to Mediterranean tanker ports near Ceyhan. "Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan" aims to spur economic development and unite, stabilize, and anchor new nations along the western leg of the ancient trade route known as the Great Silk Road.

Water and Food Security in the Middle East

To complement its military focus, IGCC also researches ways to meet basic economic needs of the Middle East and North Africa. In 1996, IGCC began the project "Water and Food Security in the Middle East" to examine how meeting fundamental resource requirements is crucial to the peace process. An extension of this project took place on 15 December 1998 at the IGCC Washington, D.C., office.

Middle East Environmental Diplomacy

Expanding on IGCC's project on water and food security in the Middle East, the conference "Environmental Diplomacy in the Middle East: Past Efforts, Present Dilemmas and Future Options." was held in Washington, D.C., in 1998. The conference had three objectives: 1) to examine past environmental diplomatic efforts in the Middle East; 2) to draw implications for future regional and global environmental policy; and 3) to develop an innovative research agenda to help guide future multilateral efforts in the region.

In keeping with the structure of the Middle East Multilateral Working Groups, the conference addressed both regional water issues and regional environmental issues. The conference was attended by experts from the U.S. government, research institutions, academia, the environmental community, the Middle East policy community, and public and private foundation representatives. The conference was funded by the new congressionally-authorized Edmund S. Muskie Foundation, established to honor the former Secretary of State's commitment to the preservation of the environment and global affairs.

Constructing a Mediterranean Region: Cultural and Functional Perspectives

One route to stability on the borders of southern Europe may be revitalization and integration of the Mediterranean region as a whole. At a conference held November 1999 at UC Berkeley, participants considered how policy prescriptions might best serve the aim of constructing a Mediterranean region, by assessing recent attempts at Mediterranean integration and the cultural, economic, and political implications of such a maneuver. Key issues included assessing the role functional measures should play in regional integration and conflict prevention, and identifying constraints and opportunities for building a Mediterranean sense of identity.

Promoting Regional Cooperation in the Middle East

In 1993, after a request from Israel's foreign minister, Profs. Susan Shirk (IGCC) and Steven Spiegel (UCLA) created the project "Promoting Regional Cooperation in the Middle East." This initiative commissioned policy memos and proposals for improving the chances of the multilateral talks on arms control, economic cooperation, environmental issues, refugees, and water resources.

Selected Publications on the Middle East

Number: Policy Paper 56
Title: Maritime Aspects of Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East
Author(s): David N. Griffiths
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 28
Year of Publication: 2000
Related PolicyPack: PolicyPack 56


Number: Policy Paper 49
Title: The Military Balance in the Middle East: An Executive Summary
Author(s): Anthony H. Cordesman
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 122
Year of Publication: 1999


Number: Policy Paper 48
Title: Conventional Arms Control in the Middle East: Conceptual Challenges and an Illustrative Framework
Author(s): Michael Moodie
Published by: IGCC
Pages: Year of Publication: 2000
Related PolicyPack: PolicyPack 48


Number: Policy Paper 43
Title: Banking on Peace: Lessons from the Middle East Development Bank
Author(s): Dalia Dassa Kaye
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 17
Year of Publication: 1998

Number: Policy Paper 42
Title: Environmental Diplomacy and the Jordan Basin
Author(s): Isha Ray, Gershon Baskin, Zakaria al Qaq, W. Michael Hanemann
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 21
Year of Publication: 2001
Related PolicyPack: PolicyPack 42


Number: Policy Paper 26
Title: The Middle East Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) Talks: Progress, Problems, and Prospects
Author(s): Bruce Jentleson
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 40
Year of Publication: 1996
Number: Policy Paper 23
Title: Workshop on Arms Control and Security in the Middle East III
Author(s): Ronald Lehman, Peter Jones, Sverre Lodgaard, John Chipman, Fred Wehling
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 34
Year of Publication: 1996
Number: Policy Paper 22
Title: The Moral Foundation of International Intervention
Author(s): Leonard Binder
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 40
Year of Publication: 1996


Number: Policy Paper 14
Title: Promoting Regional Cooperation in the Middle East
Author(s): Fred Wehling, Lewis Dunn, Ali Ghezawi, Yoram Avnimelech, Howard Adelman, Richard Rosecrance
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 42
Year of Publication: 1995


Number: Policy Paper 07
Title: Workshop on Arms Control and Security in the Middle East III
Author(s): Paul L. Chrzanowski
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 26
Year of Publication: 1994


Number: Policy Paper 04
Title: Workshop on Arms Control and Security in the Middle East
Author(s): David J. Pervin
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 17
Year of Publication: 1993
Number: PolicyPack 61
Title: The Great Silk Road Survey
Author: Jennifer R. Pournelle
Published by: IGCC
Related Policy Paper: None
Number of Slides: 26
Year of Publication: 2002
Number: PolicyPack 60
Title: International Intervention in Civil Conflict
Author: Barbara F. Walter, Phil Roeder, James Fearon
Published by: IGCC
Related Policy Paper: None
Number of Slides: 31
Year of Publication: 2002
Number: Policy Brief 11-2
Title: Smoothing the Waters: The Nile in Conflict
Author: Robert O. Collins
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 4
Year of Publication: 1999
Number: Policy Brief 11-1
Title: Smoothing the Waters: The Jordan Rift
Author: Richard T. Carson, Nadja Marinova, David Zilberman
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 4
Year of Publication: 1999<
Number: Policy Brief 04
Title: Middle East Environmental Cooperation
Author: Philip Warburg
Published by: IGCC
Pages: 4
Year of Publication: 1995
Title: The Jordanian-Palestinian-Israeli Triangle: Smoothing the Path to Peace
Author(s): Joseph Ginat, Onn Winckler, eds.
ISBN: 1-902210-03-4 (paper)
Published by: Sussex Academic Press
Year of Publication: 1998
Title: Being Israeli: The Dynamics of Multiple Citizenship
Author(s): Gershon Shafir, Yoav Peled
Published by: Cambridge University Press
Year of Publication: 2002
Title: The Dynamics of Middle East Nuclear Proliferation
Author(s): Steven L. Spiegel, Jennifer D. Kibbe, Elizabeth G. Matthews
Published by: Edwin Mellen Press
Year of Publication: 2001
Title: The Other Arab-Israeli Conflict
Author(s): Steven L. Spiegel
Published by: University of Chicago Press
Year of Publication: 1985
Title: Practical Peacemaking in the Middle East Volume I: Arms Control and Regional Security
Author(s): Steven L. Spiegel, David J. Pervin, eds.
ISBN: 0-8152-1999-1
Published by: Garland Publishing
Year of Publication: 1995

Title: Practical Peacemaking in the Middle East Volume II: The Environment, Water, Refugees, and Economic Cooperation & Development
Author(s): Steven L. Spiegel, David J. Pervin
ISBN: 0-8153-2000-0
Published by: Garland Publishing
Year of Publication: 1995


Title: The Arab-Israeli Search for Peace
Steven Spiegel
ISBN: 1-55587-313-8
Published by: Lynne Rienner Publishers
Year of Publication: 1992
Title: Soviet-American Competition in the Middle East
Author(s): Steven L. Spiegel, Mark A. Heller, Jacob Goldberg, eds.
ISBN: 0-669-15357-5 (out of print)
Published by: Lexington Books
Year of Publication: 1988
Title: Conflict Management in the Middle East
Author(s): Steven L. Spiegel
ISBN: 0-8122-8218-1 (out of print)
Published by: Westview Press/Pinter Publishers
Year of Publication: 1992
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