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our publications department. Number: Policy Brief 15 Title:Maintaining Cooperation Under the Pacific Salmon Treaty Author: Christopher Costello Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 2000
Abstract: Bioeconomic analysis of the U.S.–Canada conflict over management of transboundary pacific salmon suggests that implementing a package of economic incentives—harvest taxes coupled with environmental quality subsidies—will serve to encourage and maintain cooperation under the Pacific Salmon Treaty. Harvest taxes should be structured to deter overharvest within one's own country and reduce "interceptions" of salmon spawned in the other nation. The environmental quality subsidy will encourage improvements of riparian, spawning, and rearing habitats critical to the enhancement of pacific salmon species, benefiting harvesters, consumers, and citizens on both sides of the border. The cooperative agreement suggested by such an economic policy is consistent with the goals and language in the 1985 Pacific Salmon Treaty, and will encourage larger economic gains, as well as enhanced salmon populations in both countries, than would be achieved in the absence of cooperation. Number: Policy Brief 14 Title:Good Fences Make Good Neighbors Author: Sandra Joireman Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 2001
Abstract: A cease fire in the border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is only the beginning of the process of conflict resolution that must occur for peace to take hold. The border war is the result of long-standing distrust and animosity between these two countries. The possibility of the conflict erupting into violence again is high, unless serious internal and international effort is put into the demarcation of the border and the acceptance of that demarcated border as fair.
The United States needs to work towards strengthening its relationship with Ethiopia in particular, as this has been damaged by its reactions to the border war. Ethiopia is our most important, and possibly our only ally in the Horn of Africa. Its efforts at democratization, its size, and its relative stability make it essential to the promotion of U.S. interests in the entire Horn region. It is therefore necessary for the United States to build strong relations with Ethiopia as well as encourage peace and economic development.
Number: Policy Brief 13 Title:Running on Air Author: Richard T. Carson, Nadja Marinova Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1999
Abstract: Sulfur hexafluoride, SF6, is the most potent greenhouse gas regulated under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. It is considered of minor importance as it represents only a tiny fraction of greenhouse gas emissions. However, atmospheric SF6 concentrations are increasing at fifteen times the rate of CO2. This trend, combined with a lifetime for the gas of over three thousand years, warrants a closer look at the possibilities for SF6 emissions reductions.
Because SF6 production and consumption patterns are similar to those CFC market characteristics that made the Montreal Protocol so successful, SF6 is the one greenhouse gas for which an effective and low-cost control strategy could be quickly implemented through a similar agreement. There are very few SF6 producers, and production is not a major profit center for any of them. Nor is there any large-scale refilling service industry. Furthermore, in each of the three main classes of applications for SF6, the gas could be replaced, or its release minimized via a deposit-refund scheme, with no significant economic disruption.
There now exists no coordinated international effort to phase out low priority SF6 uses or to minimize its release. Instead, SF6 is simply lumped together with other greenhouse gases. However, a separate agreement dealing solely with SF6 phase-out bears more promise for limiting this gas's greenhouse effects. Such an agreement should take into account the lessons learned from the Montreal Protocol and could be effectively structured as a side agreement to the Kyoto Protocol.
Abstract: Climate change may not be a smooth, gradual phenomenon, but may occur in abrupt jumps. There can be abrupt climate change within a period of ten years. This suggests that climate change acts more like a switch than a dial, and jumps from one relatively stable state to another. Economic studies and policy recommendations based upon the assumption that there will be gradual increases in temperature may be seriously flawed. While climate models are not yet accurate enough to predict exactly how close we are to dangerous triggers, the more climate is altered, the greater the risk of sudden change.
Number: Policy Brief 12-4 Title:Climate Change Science: Soil Carbon Sinks Author: Susan Trumbore Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1999
Abstract: Decomposition of organic matter makes soil the largest natural source of greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane—released into the atmosphere. Human land modification and agriculture has led to a global net loss of soil carbon, and dramatically increased nitrous oxide and methane emissions. Better management practices can increase soil carbon storage, but to be significant these must cover large areas over a long period of time—and changes can be difficult to measure. Further, there are inherent limits to how much atmospheric carbon can be removed or stored by forests or soils. Stabilizing future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations cannot be achieved without reducing fossil fuel emissions. Number: Policy Brief 12-3 Title:Climate Change Science: Critical Omissions for Critical Emissions Author: Mark Thiemens Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1999
Abstract: The atmospheric concentrations of several non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases are rising and making an increasing contribution to global warming. The most important of these gases include methane, nitrous oxide, and ground-level ozone. For example, nitrous oxide is two hundred times more pernicious a greenhouse agent than carbon dioxide. Yet, while its rising concentration since the start of the industrial revolution indicates a man- made source, nearly thirty percent of its origins remain unidentified. In China, rural-to-urban migration accompanying economic modernization will result in huge greenhouse gas emissions. Critical to forecasting these and predicting their consequences are demographic and intra-country emissions statistics and modeling. More research on non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases is needed to develop the best overall policies for regulating emissions. Number: Policy Brief 12-2 Title:Climate Change Science: Predicting Twenty-first Century Climate Author: Richard C. J. Somerville Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1999
Abstract: Thanks to recent developments in climate modeling, our ability to predict severe storms, El Niño, and La Niña effects is improving. But climate models are not yet accurate enough to predict how close we are to dangerous triggers for sudden, drastic, regional or global climate change. Accurate predictions require solid data, realistic simulations, and super-computer access. If climate changes, clouds are likely to change as well, and have important feedback on the change process. Thus, treating clouds accurately is especially critical. Long-term, sustained, global-scale observations are necessary. Governments must commit resources and develop cooperative strategies to fill in gaps in current observing systems. Current computer simulations do not model clouds well and have rarely been tested against observations. Observational and modeling research to show how clouds behave in the actual atmosphere is key to making future climate projections reliable, detailed, and useful to policymakers. It should be supported. Number: Policy Brief 11-2 Title:Smoothing the Waters: The Nile in Conflict Author: Robert O. Collins Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1999
Abstract: The hydropolitics of the Middle East have become heated due to the growing scarcity of fresh water within the region. As the population of the Nile Basin expands over the next twenty-five years, unprecedented demands on the fixed supply of water from the Nile will emerge. Among the ten independent states found within the Nile Basin, the desire of each to meet its national needs with such limited resources further raises the specter of conflict surrounding these waters. The international community and its agencies are aware of the need for regulation but have yet to reconcile national interests with hydrologic development. Extenuating circumstances such as questions of environmental, demographic, and political rights concerning to whom the Nile waters should be allocated will continue to complicate matters. It is therefore necessary to institute some form of Nile control to encourage the development of these waters as a whole. Number: Policy Brief 11-1 Title:Smoothing the Waters: The Jordan Rift Author: Richard T. Carson, Nadja Marinova, David Zilberman Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1999
Abstract: The Oslo Peace Process aims to address, first and foremost, salient security issues between Israelis and Palestinians that stand in the way of a lasting regional peace agreement. The other major challenge to regional stability in the region, however, involves meeting basic human needs and, in particular, providing adequate food, water, and sanitation to sustain rapidly growing populations. While control of water resources has long been seen as an important security objective, most other regional environmental issues are closely tied to some aspect of water quantity and quality. Although the current dilemma is often identified as a crisis of water scarcity, the reality is quite different. The critical issue is to find ways to efficiently manage available water resources and reliably deliver all the water demanded. Ensuring adequate water quality will be a more difficult management problem than supplying enough water. Number: Policy Brief 10 Title:Integrating the Americas Author: Richard Feinberg Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1998
Abstract: The second Summit of the Americas, held in Santiago, Chile, in April 1998 confirmed that political leaders in the United States and Latin America believe that the nations of the hemisphere are best served by membership in an integrated regional market that is also more open to the globe. Leaders also agreed that summits contribute significantly to the interests of their nations and therefore should be periodically convened.
Since the 1994 Miami Summit, a series of ministerials and working groups have developed a detailed agenda for future negotiations and have begun to establish a hemispheric community of trade officials. The grand design. however, omitted domestic political support in the United States and Brazil. Facing this disappointment, the United States and Chile devised a two-pronged strategy for the Santiago Summit. First, leaders agreed to a full-blown structure for future talks and announced the launch of negotiations. Simultaneously, leaders shed more light on the social and political initiatives on the Summit agenda. The greatest challenge facing inter-American summitry is the cultivation of domestic political constituencies. One way to build popular support would be to involve the private sector and civic organizations in the design and implementation of Summit initiatives.
Number: Policy Brief 09 Title:Integrating Asia Author: Stephan Haggard, Barry Naughton, Michael Borrus Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1997
Abstract: Intraregional investment, not trade or government-to-government agreements, drives Asia-Pacific economic integration. Such investment promotes competition among the United States and its major Asian trading partners, but also creates advantages for American firms through the formation of cross-national production networks (CPNs). The United States can best exploit these advantages through a regional trade and investment strategy that complements its traditional bilateral approach to political and economic presence-building in Asia—maintaining an open market at home, while building regional partners there. Number: Policy Brief 08-4 Title:Democratizing Foreign Policy: Presidential Leadership
After the Cold War Author: David A. Lake Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1996
Abstract: In formulating a new international strategy for the post-Cold War world, there is no substitute for a vigorous domestic debate on foreign policy goals and instruments. While opinion polls traditionally show that Americans do not place a high priority on foreign policy matters, this should not be confused with apathy; the public reacts swiftly and adversely to foreign policy mistakes. In constructing the new world order, presidential leadership should not take the form of executive policy initiatives. Foreign policy leadership should instead stimulate domestic debate prior to action, in order to find appropriate guides and ensure public support. The 1996 presidential campaign offers an opportune moment for national debate on our future foreign policy. We cannot afford to let the opportunity slip away. Number: Policy Brief 08-3 Title:Democratizing Foreign Policy: The Perils of Principles Author: David A. Lake Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1996
Abstract: Explicit principles of intervention risk creating false order and potential conflicts where none need exist. The United States should treat conflicts as discrete problems, assessing the appropriate means and likely results of its efforts on a case-by-case basis. It should resist turning problems into principles and principles into contests of commitment. Doing otherwise threatens to transform local conflicts into global conflicts and entrap the United States in a series of avoidable military confrontations. This work is relevant to understanding terrorism: its roots, how to combat it, its impact, and response. Number: Policy Brief 08-2 Title:Democratizing Foreign Policy: The Big Stick Makes Few Friends Author: David A. Lake Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1996
Abstract: Military force is a legitimate instrument of statecraft. There are and will continue to be situations that can be resolved only through the use of force. The United States is uniquely suited to act for itself or on behalf of the international community in such situations. But military force may now be too easy. The United States may resort to the stick when carrots would work as well. If so, it will soon come to be perceived by others as an international bully, with as yet unappreciated consequences. Americans must remember that power repels more often than it attracts—and that military force alone does not build domestic political order and stability. This work is relevant to understanding terrorism: its roots, how to combat it, its impact, and response. Number: Policy Brief 08-1 Title:Democratizing Foreign Policy: A Little Help from Our Friends Author: David A. Lake Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1996
Abstract: The American public has increasingly sought alternative landmarks by which to navigate the perilous waters of the post–Cold War seas. One apparently appealing indicator has been multilateral cooperation. If other countries follow, then we are more likely to believe—for better or worse—that the president is leading in the right direction. But if we rely upon foreign participation as our standard for judging presidential foreign policy initiatives, we must insist that all diplomatic deals be made openly and publicly. Otherwise, presidents thwart informed debate and deceive the people they were elected to serve. They also deprive themselves of an important check on their own propensity for error. This work is relevant to understanding terrorism: its roots, how to combat it, its impact, and response.
According to UN estimates, at least twenty-six thousand civilians are the
victims of land mine explosions caused by the more than one hundred and ten
million land mines that are scattered throughout the terrain of sixty-four
of the world's countries. Every two minutes someone in the world is maimed
or killed by a land mine. Although the world faces many complex and intractable
problems for which solutions remain elusive, serious land mine
arms control
is within reach.
It would be ethically indefensible if national and international action is
not taken to outlaw land mine use, or if the key actors like the US and the
EU were to find it beyond their political will to act.
Number: Policy Brief 05 Title:Derecognition: Exiting Bosnia Author: George Kenney Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1995
Abstract: Negotiation is the best solution to the Yugoslav war. But efforts to get the Bosnian Serbs to accept unconditionally the Contact Group's terms won't work. If the West doesn't address minority Serb concerns in Croatia and in Bosnia, we will find ourselves indefinitely prolonging UN floundering or attempting a bloody extraction of UN forces. Instead, the West should back away from uncritical support of current borders and allow Serb areas in Croatia and Bosnia to confederate with Serbia. Such de facto "derecognition" removes the fundamental issue under contention—legitimacy—thus opening new possibilities for stable cease-fire agreements. It restores Western diplomatic leverage without endangering the lives of thousands of United Nations peacekeepers. It also leads to an exit strategy, now as important a priority as containing or ending the war. A retreat from principle seems unpalatable, but the West doesn't have the strength or will to impose a settlement politically unacceptable to local peoples. Number: Policy Brief 04 Title:Middle East Environmental Cooperation Author: Philip Warburg Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1995
Abstract: Economic underdevelopment and environmental
degradation are serious long-term threats to the stability of the Middle
East. Multilateral cooperation is the
key to overcoming these threats and maintaining regional stability. One of
the most promising avenues for multilateral cooperation, and one with potential
for both economic and environmental benefits, is environmental protection in
the Gulf of Aqaba. Cooperation among Israel, Egypt, Jordan and, eventually,
Saudi Arabia can help promote the development of tourism, shipping, and limited
food production in a manner that preserves the Gulf's coral reefs and related
marine ecology. At the same time, an environmental protection framework for
the Gulf of Aqaba can serve as a "pilot project" for regional cooperation
and peace-building. Cooperative environmental protection would set an important
precedent for conflict avoidance, confidence-building, and economic development
throughout the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. The U.S. should encourage regional
actors to continue and strengthen this process.
Abstract: Ethnic conflict stems from "the fear
of the future, lived through the past." Given a fear of future exploitation,
the party that is likely to become weaker may choose to fight now rather than
later. Thus, the ethnic security
dilemma is better termed an "insecurity dilemma."
Ethnic conflict at the international level results from the breakdown of existing
social and political order, such as socio-economic change accelerated by international
economic integration (witnessed today throughout the developing world), or
the breakup of multinational states (as occurred in the former Soviet Union
and Yugoslavia). When the fear of the future sets in, ethnic identities which
may have lain dormant for years are called forth.
Ethnic differences are not necessarily a source of interstate conflict. Most
states live peacefully side-by-side despite the presence of ethnic ties and
cleavages that span their borders. However, pairs in which an ethnic group
is a dominant majority in one state but a repressed minority in a second are
particularly dangerous.
The promise of the post-Cold War world is that external powers can now intervene
to mitigate ethnic conflict. However, hesitant and vacillating interventions
have actually exacerbated rather than solved conflicts. Mediation typically
requires that the conflicting parties exhaust themselves and reach a "hurting
stalemate," but even then promises only occasional success. Far more frequent
is the eventual capitulation of one side to the other.
Number: Policy Brief 02 Title:Ethnic
Conflict Isn’t Author: Ronnie Lipschutz, Beverly Crawford Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1995
Abstract: "Ethnic" and "sectarian" conflict are not caused by ethnicity or religion. Such conflicts occur when a country's "social contract" comes under pressure from both internal and external forces. When the global economy pressures governments to engage in rapid political and economic reform, ethnic and sectarian entrepreneurs mobilize constituencies around ethnic or religious differences in an attempt to grab or restore positions of power and wealth. Avoiding future episodes of "ethnic and sectarian conflict" requires early warning systems and intervention in societies undergoing rapid and destabilizing economic and political transitions.Number: Policy Brief 01 Title:Environmental Security Author: Gordon J. MacDonald Published by: IGCC Pages: 4 Year of Publication: 1995
Abstract: Although over the centuries nations have often battled to secure natural resources, only relatively recently have national leaders begun to recognize the importance of environmental degradation as a politically destabilizing factor.
Even a layman's eye viewing Landsat photography can see that within two decades much of the Earth's green has disappeared as a result of deforestation. Bright areas representing deserts occupy a greater fraction of the globe. Vast urban regions have grown all over the world.
Deforestation and desertification are the results of an ever-increasing population in search of land for food and energy. The destruction of the food-generating capacity of rural areas intensifies resource competition and accelerates the movement of people to urban centers, fueling social upheaval. Thus, environmental degradation must enter conventional analyses of political instability, despite the long lead time of environmental threats.
U.S. security—control of its borders, its economic welfare, its trade relations,
its democratic values, its humanitarian ideals—is threatened by soil erosion,
water shortages, runaway population growth, and poverty in other countries.
If we do not recognize this and fund early environmental intervention, we will
make far more costly expenditures for late military intervention in impoverished
countries like Somalia and Haiti. To avoid future replays, we must use security
technology to monitor environmental resources, and fund international institutions
to halt resource depletion.
