2004 Summer Seminar Syllabus

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Required Reading

Please read these two books before you arrive.

Barnaby, Frank. 2004. How to Build a Nuclear Bomb: And Other Weapons of Mass Destruction (Nation Books). Link to this book on Amazon.com.


Freedman, Lawrence. 2003. The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 3d ed. (Palgrave MacMillan). Link to this book on Amazon.com.

Week One

July 5

Introduction to IR Theory
Robert Powell

Jervis, Robert. 1978. "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma." World Politics 30 (2):167–214. Available through JSTOR.

Lake, David, and Robert Powell, eds. 1999. Strategic Choice and International Relations (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press), 3–20.

Introduction to Nuclear Physics
Per Peterson

Nusafe. "Reactor Physics." Online general tutorial available at http://www.iaea.org/ns/nusafe/tutors/reactorphysics/reactor_physics4.htm. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Optional reading:

Lamarsh, J. R. 2001. Introduction to Nuclear Engineering, 3d ed. (New Jersey: Prentice Hall).

Peterson, Per. 2003. "Nuclear Physics and Interactions of Radiation with Matter." 28 full-color Powerpoint slides.

July 6

Game Theory I
Robert Powell

Applied Nuclear Physics I
Per Peterson

Albright, David, and Corey Hinderstein. 2003. "The Iranian Gas Centrifuge Uranium Enrichment Plant at Natanz: Drawing from Commercial Satellite Images." The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS). 14 March. Available at http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/natanz03_02.html. Accessed 15 September 2004.

Peterson, Per. 2003. "Nuclear Fuel Cycles." Powerpoint slide presentation. 28 pp. Full color.

Uranium Information Center. 2003. "Nuclear Electricity." Available at http://www.world-nuclear.org/education/ne/ne3.htm. Accessed 15 September 2004.

World Nuclear Association. 2002. "Nuclear Energy Made Simple: The Nuclear Fuel Cycle." Available at http://www.world-nuclear.org/education/nfc.htm. Accessed 15 September 2004.

Optional reading:

Benedict, M., T. H. Pigford, and H. W. Levi. 1981. Nuclear Chemical Engineering, 2d ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill).

July 7

Applied Nuclear Physics II
Per Peterson

See readings under Applied Nuclear Physics I.

Game Theory II
Robert Powell

July 8

Nuclear Deterrence Theory I
Robert Powell

Jervis, Robert. 1989. The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press), ch. 1.

Knorr, Klaus. 1962. "Limited Strategic War." In Limited Strategic War, Klaus Knorr and Thorton Read, eds. (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press).

Powell, Robert. 1990. Nuclear Deterrence Theory: The Search for Credibility (New York: Cambridge University Press), ch. 2.

Schelling, Thomas. 1967. Arms and Influence (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press), ch. 1–3.

Singh, Sonali, and Christopher H. Way. 2003. "Paths to Non-Proliferation: The Need for a Quantitative Test of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Theory." Paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, 26 Feb.–2 March, Portland, Oregon. 60 pp.

Nuclear Deterrence Theory II
Robert Powell

Fearon, James D. 1998. “Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation.” International Organization 52, 2 (spring):269–306. Available on JSTOR.

Schelling, Thomas, and Morton Halperin. 1961. Strategy and Arms Control (New York: Twentieth Century Fund), ch. 1–3.

July 9

Nuclear Deterrence Theory III
Robert Powell

Greenwood, Ted, and Michael Nacht. 1974. “The New Nuclear Debate: Sense or Nonsense?” Foreign Affairs 52 (4): 761–80. http://fullaccess.foreignaffairs.org/19740701faessay10116/ted-greenwood-michael-l-nachi/the-new-nuclear-debate-sense-or-nonsense.html

Jervis, Robert. 1993. "Arms Control, Stability, and Causes of War." Political Science Quarterly 108, 2 (summer):239–53. Available on JSTOR.

"Nuclear Mirage," New York Times, 2 June 2003, A20.

Powell, Robert. 2003. "Nuclear Deterrence Theory, Nuclear Proliferation, and National Missile Defense." International Security 27 (4): 86–118.

Scoville, Herbert. 1974. “Flexible Madness,” Foreign Policy 14:164–77. Available on JSTOR.

Sterngold, James. 2003. "Top Bush Nuclear Adviser Opposes Arms Compromise." San Francisco Chronicle, 16 May. Available at http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/05/16/MN280638.DTL. Accessed 15 September 2004.

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Week Two

July 12

U.S. Forces, Policies, and Arms Control During the Cold War I
Charles Glaser

Glaser, Charles. 1991. Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press), ch. 7, 8, 10.

Schelling, Thomas C. 1985/86. "What Went Wrong with Arms Control," Foreign Affairs 64, 2 (winter):219–33.

Schwartz, David. 1984. "Past and Present: The Historical Legacy." In Ballistic Missile Defense, Carter and David Schwartz, eds. (Washington, D.C.: Brookings), 330–49.

U.S. Forces, Policies, and Arms Control During the Cold War II
Charles Glaser

See readings under U.S. Forces, Policies, and Arms Control I.

July 13

U.S. Nuclear Forces and Doctrine After the Cold War
Charles Glaser

Boese, Wade. 2003. "Missile Defense Post-ABM Treaty: No System, No Arms Race." Arms Control Today 33, 5 (June). Accessed 16 September 2004.

Fetter, Steve, and Charles L. Glaser. Forthcoming. "Assessing the Nuclear Posture Review." In Implementing the Nuclear Posture Review, edited by James Wirtz.

Glaser, Charles L., and Steve Fetter. 2001. "National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy." International Security 26, 1 (summer):40–92.

Nuclear Posture Review [excerpts]. 8 January 2002. Available on the Global Security.org web site at http://www.globalsecurity.or/wmd/library/policy/dod/npr.htm. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Sokolsky, Richard. 2002. "Demystifying the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review." Survival 44, 3 (autumn 2002):133–48.

Experiences with North Korean Nuclear Facilities Monitoring
Sig Hecker

How Nuclear Weapons Work
John Scott

July 14

Proliferation, Non-Proliferation, and Counter-Proliferation I
Lawrence Scheinman

Goldblat, Jozef. 1997. "Nuclear Weapon Free Zones: A History and Assessment." The Nonproliferation Review 5 (spring/summer):18–32. Download available at http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol04/43toc.htm. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Haggard, Stephan, and Beth A. Simmons. 1987. "Theories of International Regimes." International Organization 41, 3 (summer):491–517. Available on JSTOR.

Rauf, Tariq. 2000. "Viewpoint: The 2000 NPT Review Conference." The Nonproliferation Review 7 (spring): 146–61. Download availalable at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol07/71toc.htm. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Rauf, Tariq, and Rebecca Johnson. 1995. "After the NPT's Indefinite Extension: The Future of the Global Non-Proliferation Regime." The Nonproliferation Review 3 (fall):28–42. Available at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol03/31toc.htm. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Scheinman, Lawrence. 2003. "Reflections on Challenges to the Non-Proliferation Regime." Unpublished ms., Monterey Institute of International Studies, Monterey, Calif.

On the Stability and Spread of Nuclear Weapons
Scott Sagan

Sagan, Scott D., and Kenneth N. Waltz. 2003. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed; with New Sections on India and Pakistan, Terrorism, and Missile Defense, 2d ed. (New York: W.W. Norton).

Sagan, Scott. 2001. "The Perils of Proliferation in South Asia." Asian Survey (Nov./ Dec.).

July 15

Proliferation, Non-Proliferation, and Counter-Proliferation II
Lawrence Scheinman

The White House. 2004. Remarks by President George W. Bush on Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation, Fort Lesley J. McNair, National Defense University, Washington, D.C., 11 February. Text of the speech is available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/02/20040211-4.html. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Du Preez, Jean. 2002. "The Impact of the Nuclear Posture Review on the Nonproliferation Regime." The Nonproliferation Review 9 (fall/winter):67–81. Available at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol09/93toc.htm. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Miller, Marvin, and Lawrence Scheinman, 2003. "Israel, India, and Pakistan: Engaging the Non-NPT States in the Nonproliferation Regime." Arms Control Today (December):15–20. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Sagan, Scott. 1996. "Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb." International Security 21, 3 (winter):54–86. Available on JSTOR.

Scheinman, Lawrence. 2001. "Transcending Sovereignty in the Management and Control of Nuclear Material." IAEA Bulletin 43 (4):33–38. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Squassoni, Sharon. 2004. "Closing Pandora's Box: Pakistan's Role in Nuclear Proliferation." Arms Control Today (April). Accessed 16 September 2004.

Weiss, Leonard. 2004. "Pakistan: It's Deja Vu all over Again." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 60 (May-June):52–59. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Arms Control
Joseph Pilat

July 16

Proliferation, Non-Proliferation, and Counter-Proliferation III
Lawrence Scheinman

See readings for Proliferation, Non-Proliferation, and Counter-Proliferation I and II.

International Nuclear Safeguards
Kory Budlong-Sylvester

Required reading:
U.S. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. 1995. "Nuclear Safeguards and the International Atomic Energy Agency." OTA-ISS-615 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office).

Suggested reading:
The "Statute of the IAEA." Available at http://www.iaea.or.at/About/statute_text.html. Accessed 16 September 2004.

IAEA. 1972. "The Structure and Content of Agreements Between the Agency and States Required in Connection with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons." INFCIRC/153 (corrected), June. Available at http://www.iaea.or.at/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/inf153.shtml.

IAEA. 1997. "Model Protocol Additional to the Agreement(s) Between State(s) and the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Application of Safeguards." INFCIRC540, September.

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Week Three

July 19

PPBT JOINT SESSION: Problem Overview and Current Responses
Peter Cowhey
Sam Bozzette

Proliferation, Nonproliferation, and Counterproliferation IV
Lawrence Scheinman

See readings for Proliferation, Non-Proliferation, and Counter-Proliferation I and II.

July 20

PPBT JOINT SESSION: Bio Science III Weaponization of Biological Agents
Dean Wilkening
Michael May

PPBT JOINT SESSION: International Regime Design
Lawrence Scheinman

See readings for Proliferation, Non-Proliferation, and Counter-Proliferation I and II.

The Weaponization of Space
Richard Garwin

Garwin, R. L. 2003. "Space Weapons: Not Yet." Paper presented at Pugwash Workshop on Preserving the Non-Weaponization of Space, Castellon de la Plana, Spain, 22–24 May. Available at http://fas.org/rlg/030522-space.pdf. Accessed 16 September 2004.

2001. "Report of the Commission to Assess U.S. National Security Space Management and Organization." 11 January. Available on the Air University Center for Space Studies web site at http://space.au.af.mil/space_commission. Accessed 16 September 2004.

July 21

PPBT JOINT SESSION: Bio Science III Weaponization of Biological Agents
Dean Wilkening
Michael May

PPBT JOINT SESSION: WMD and Terrorism: Defining the Threats
Dean Wilkening
Michael May

July 22

PPBT JOINT SESSION: The Technical Challenges of Verification: NBC
Cyndi Wells
Bill Priedhorsky
Margaret Kosal

Pakistan
Zachary Davis
Feroz Khan

Khan, Feroz. 2003. "Challenges to Nuclear Stability in South Asia." Non-Proliferation Review 10 (spring). Abstract available at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol10/101toc.htm. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Khan, Feroz. 2003. "The Dependence-Independence Paradox: Stability Dilemmas in South Asia." Arms Control Today (October). Accessed 16 September 2004.

Khan, Feroz. 2004. "The Nuclear Policy that Backfired." Financial Times (London), 8 March.

July 23

North Korea
Zachary Davis
Pat Morgan

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Week Four

July 27

Iran
Corey Hinderstein

IAEA. 2004. "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran." Report of the Director General. GOV/2004/34. 1 June.

Counterproliferation
Michael Nacht

July 28

The Challenges of Managing the Stockpile
Kent Johnson

Agnew, Harold M., John S. Foster, Sydell P. Gold, Stephen J. Guidice, and James R. Schlesinger. 2003. "FY2003 Report to Congress of the Panel to Assess the Reliability, Safety, and Security of the United States Nuclear Stockpile." 11 April.

Johnson, Kent, Joseph Keller, Carl Ekdahl, Richard Krajcik, Luis Salazar, Earl Kelly, and Robert Paulsen. 1995. "Stockpile Surveillance: Past and Future." Sandia Report SAND95-2751.

Roundtable Discussion
Michael Nacht
Ron Lehman
Michael Intriligator
Steve Maaranen

Intriligator, Michael D. 2003. "Recent Changes in U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy." Paper presented to the GRAD Conference on Regional Cooperation and Global Security, Vancouver, B.C., 14–16 June.

Intriligator, Michael D. 2004. "U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy Under the Bush Administration." Paper presented to the GRAD Conference on Regional Cooperation and Global Security, Budapest, 30 June–4 July.

July 29

Missile Defense
John Cornwall

Cornwall, Michael. "Ballistic Missile Defense." Powerpoint slide presentation. 35 pp.

Gronlund, Lisbeth, David C. Wright, George N. Lewis, and Philip E. Coyle, III. "Technical Realities: An Analysis of the 2004 Deployment of a U.S. National Missile Defense System." Union of Concerned Scientists report. 92 pages. Available at http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/missile_defense/page.cfm?pageID=1403. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Kleppner, Daniel, Frederick K. Lamb, and David E. Mosher. 2004. "Boost-Phase Defense Against ICBMs." Physics Today 57, 1 (January). Available at http://www.physicstoday.org/pt/vol-57/iss-1/p30.html. Accessed 16 September 2004.

Sessler, Andrew, John M. Cornwall, Bob Dietz, Steve Fetter, Sherman Frankel, Richard L. Garwin, Kurt Gottfried, Lisbeth Gronlund, George N. Lewis, Theodore A. Postol, and David C. Wright. 2000. "Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned US National Missile Defense System." Union of Concerned Scientists report. 175 pages. Posted 11 April. Available at http://www.ucsusa.org/publications/report.cfm?publicationID=132. Accessed 16 September 2004.

The White House. 2002. "National Policy on Ballistic Missile Defense." NSPD-23, 16 December. Available from the Federation of American Scientists web site at http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspd/nspd-23.htm. Accessed 16 September 2004.

July 29

Student Presentations
Moderators: James Larrimore, Kory Budlong-Sylvester

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